Why Our Market Is More Stable Than You Think

Here are four reasons why we’re not in a market bubble that’s soon to burst.

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As we head into the second quarter of 2021, there’s a lot of fear out there regarding the real estate market. People see that prices are continuing to rise and they’re concerned—understandably so—about the potential for a bubble in the market leading to a crash. Will we see a collapse like we saw a decade ago? Are prices about to fall? The answer to all of these questions is unequivocally no; we are not in the midst of a bubble, and a crash isn’t on the horizon. Here’s why: 

1. Limited supply. Leading up to the ‘08 crash, we had an abundance of homes on the market, and not many people were actually interested in buying them. Builders ramped up production and greatly outpaced natural demand. Currently, we have fewer than two months of inventory across most neighborhoods and price ranges in Tampa Bay, meaning that there’s more demand than supply; prices will rise organically. Our market isn’t unstable or unnatural—it’s being fueled by basic economic principles. We can’t say the same for the manipulated market that existed between 2005 and 2008. That leads me to my next point… 

2. The housing demand is real. We don’t have all the faulty and fake loans out there. Nowadays, it’s much harder to qualify for a loan; you have to send in more documents to verify more components of your financial profile before receiving approval.

      In the early to mid-2000s, Americans were using their houses like ATMs.

3. Households in 2021 have plenty of equity. In the early to mid-2000s, Americans were using their houses like ATMs. There was almost an economic assumption that equity exists solely to help you buy things like a new car or splurge on a fun vacation. This type of thinking left many vulnerable to a market correction. Today’s homeowners are not overextending themselves; they’re using their equity more judiciously. If you look at the stats, you’ll see that the majority of homeowners today are in much, much stronger equity positions than homeowners last decade. 

4. Real estate is hyperlocal. What happens in one market doesn’t necessarily indicate what will happen in another. Here in Tampa Bay, we have several factors that will help keep our market hot for the foreseeable future. First, there's the population growth; more people are moving here than are moving away. Our builders are still lagging behind demand! Fewer people are selling their homes (though I think that that’s a mistake, considering they might get hit with an unpleasant new tax bill soon).

Additionally, we have low taxes and fantastic weather. Last but not least, we have winning sports teams! We won the Stanley Cup and the Super Bowl, and our MLB team contended in last year’s World Series.

So there you have it—four reasons why you should put your market bubble fears to bed. Hopefully this helped put things into perspective. As always, reach out by phone or email if you have questions about this or any other real estate topic. I’m here to help, and it’d be my pleasure to have a more in-depth conversation with you.

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